Kp forecast models

Kp forecast models

[1] Magnetically active times, e.g., Kp > 5, are notoriously difficult to predict, precisely the times when such predictions are crucial to the space weather users. Taking advantage of the routinely available solar wind measurements at Langrangian point (L1) and nowcast Kps, Kp forecast models based on neural networks were developed with the focus on improving the forecast for active times. To ...

Comparison of KP and BBM-KP Models

It is shown that the solutions of the pure initial-value problem for the KP and regularized KP equations are the same, within the order of accuracy attributable to either, on the time scale 0 ≤ t ≤ −3/2 , during which nonlinear and dispersive effects may accumulate to make an order-one relative difference to the wave profiles. under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrest...

Multimatrix Models and the KP-Hierarchy

We analyze the critical points of multimatrix models. In particular we find the critical points of highest multicriticality of the symmetric two-matrix model with an even potential. We solve the model on the sphere and show that these critical points correspond to the (p, q) minimal models with p + q =odd. Based on this experience we give a formulation of minimal models coupled to quantum gravi...

Flexible Regression Models and Relative Forecast Performance ∗

Different Models to Forecast Electricity Loads

Forecasting electricity load is an important economic problem. Sometimes suited prediction methods are evaluated by benchmark scenarios, as in case of the world-wide competition within the EUNITE network. Here maximal daily electricity load has to be forecasted over a whole month given data of two years before. Because no formal model exists of how load depends on e.g. temperature or other envi...